Monday, August 27, 2007

NYer Giuliani Time ...

Despite pages of analysis, this article fails to discuss the electoral college (EC) math that would seem to make Rudy Giuliani a formidable candidate. My instincts sense that Rudy's real difference from other Republicans is that he could upset the electoral college apple cart win a head-to-head race against Hillary in New York. (This April poll puts Clinton ahead by 14 points -- but I have heard of others that are different).

Rudy's EC strength: Puts New York (31 EVs), New Jersey (17 EVs) and Connecticut (7 EVs) back into play. If he picks up those states, that swings 55 electoral votes -- or about one-fifth of what Kerry picked up.

Rudy's EC weakness: If he does not carry those states, he runs a real risk of losing states such as Iowa and New Mexico and perhaps more.

A Rudy/Hillary finals could also serve to lance the venomous partisan boil that has been building for a while now -- after all, Americans of all stripes can agree on the fact that they resent and despise New Yorkers.


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